Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review
June 19-25
Summary
— Russian engineers from RusHydro were involved in the preparation of the Kakhovka dam explosion – so the CEO of Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota. To cause that kind of damage, hundreds of kilograms of explosives had to be placed in the “vulnerable” areas.
— According to the National Bank’s first estimate, the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP will have a negative effect on Ukraine’s real GDP (-0.2%). The maximum losses are estimated at USD 0.4 billion in 2023 and USD 0.7 billion in 2024.
— The President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia NPP with a radiation release and has completed all preparations. The intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that Russian troops had mined the ZNPP cooling pond and placed explosives near 4 of 6 units.
— Ukraine has provided its international partners with full information of the threat. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement calling on the G7 and the EU to take urgent measures, including the introduction of enhanced restrictive measures on the Russian nuclear industry. The Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko announced the creation of headquarters in case of a terrorist attack.
— According to the UN assessment, the damage to Ukraine’s energy system – excluding the Kakhovka HPP destruction – has reached over USD 10 billion. The system remains vulnerable and continues to operate with almost no safety margin. Flexible capacities of the system suffered the most and decreased by 68% (from 14.3 GW to 4.6 GW), primarily due to strikes on TPPs. 42 of 94 most important high-voltage transformers were damaged or destroyed.
— Due to damaged infrastructure, technological violations occur. Namely, on June 21, a largescale accident occurred on the 330 kV power line, as a result 268,000 consumers in Kyiv and 116,000 in the Kyiv region were disconnected. The cross-border line with Moldova was temporarily offline.
— Also, the UN believes that Ukraine will not have time to significantly improve the state of electricity sector before winter due to a six-month delay in the delivery of new equipment.
— The continued reduction in trading on the bilateral contracts market of electricity is related to the expectation of the Regulator’s decision regarding the change of price caps. Some players attempted to test the market, initiating sale bids at 3,500 UAH/MWh and higher, yet with no demand.
— Following the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London (URC2023):
- the EU announced a new support instrument for Ukraine which aims to cover 45% of the fiscal deficit and rapid recovery needs;
- the EBRD will facilitate the attraction of EUR 600 million for Ukrhydroenergo, Ukrenergo, and Naftogaz;
- the United States announced the allocation of about USD 520 million will be used to restore the destroyed energy system;
- Ukraine and the United Kingdom will also create a GBP 62 million InnovateUkraine Green Innovation Challenge Fund;
- the Ukrainian Energy Initiative was launched to accelerate the recovery of Ukraine’s energy sector;
- the Ukraine Development Fund (UDF) was presented as a national development financial institution, with energy among five key sectors.
— The Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko presented a new 2050 Energy Strategy at the URC 2023, according to which investment opportunities of USD 383 billion. The key objective of the strategy is to turn Ukraine into an energy hub in Europe.
— GTSOU will receive five automatic gas distribution stations for 300 mln UAH within the framework of assistance from the Ukraine Energy Support Fund.
— Naftogaz has begun enforced collection of USD 5 billion in compensation from Russia for losses and lost property in Crimea at the expense of assets located in the United States. Also, the government agreed on the terms of restructuring Eurobonds of Naftogaz maturing in July 2022 and November 2026.
