Weather conditions, stable operation of nuclear power plants, capacity restoration, and imports helped avoid large-scale blackouts during the heating season – Energy Security Talks
The 2024/2025 heating season was a serious test for Ukraine’s energy system. It was the most difficult winter since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, due to the devastating attacks recorded throughout 2024. In total, 10 GW of installed capacity was lost during the year. In addition, Russian attacks brought domestic gas production to a minimum.
During the 2024–2025 heating season, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure endured nine massive attacks targeting thermal power plants (TPPs and CHPPs), hydroelectric power stations, and grid facilities. Gas infrastructure facilities were also struck, leading to a sharp decline in domestic gas production to a minimal level.
However, despite the large-scale attacks and significant destruction, the stability of energy supply was maintained throughout the heating season. How this was achieved, what is needed to prepare for the next season, and what challenges lie ahead were discussed by DiXi Group experts together with representatives of the government, energy companies, and the expert community during the Energy Security Talks discussion “Energy System Under Pressure: How Ukraine Passed the Heating Season and What Lies Ahead,” organized by the DiXi Group think tank.
As is tradition, DiXi Group President Olena Pavlenko delivered the opening remarks. She emphasized that the 2024–2025 autumn-winter period was the most difficult for Ukraine’s energy sector since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Nevertheless, despite expectations of widespread outages and systemic attacks by Russia, the energy system endured.
“The war in the energy sector continued, although many consumers, especially households, barely felt its impact — at least compared to last year. A key factor that ensured the passage of the heating season without large-scale blackouts was, first, the favorable weather — the winter was mild, with above-normal temperatures. Second, the stable operation of nuclear generation. Third, around 5 GW of thermal and hydro generation capacity was restored. The resilience of Ukrainian energy workers, who operated under extremely difficult conditions, also played a crucial role, as did international support, which helped quickly repair damaged equipment,” noted Olena Pavlenko.
Olena Pavlenko emphasized the importance of open dialogue with representatives of the Ministry and energy companies to gain a clear understanding of the current situation and future challenges. She also expressed gratitude to energy workers for their dedication under constant threats and risks, which made it possible to avoid an energy collapse this winter.
During the event, Olena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Resilience at DiXi Group, presented an assessment of Ukraine’s power system performance during the 2024–2025 autumn-winter period. The analysis included the system’s preparedness for peak loads compared to previous years and key lessons to consider in preparing for the next season.
She pointed out that, according to expert assessments conducted ahead of the heating season, during peak load hours, the power system could face a deficit of 2–3 GW — even assuming stable operation of nuclear and thermal generation and availability of electricity imports. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian power system demonstrated remarkable resilience despite ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Although these strikes had a significant impact on generation, prompt actions by energy workers helped prevent the worst-case scenarios from unfolding.
“This winter, peak consumption reached 16.5 GW — lower than the projected 18 GW — and this demand was met without a critical shortfall. Nuclear power plants bore the main load, traditionally covering 45–50% of the total energy balance. The share of thermal power plants (TPPs and CHPPs) remained at 25–30%, similar to pre-invasion levels. Hydropower operated under constrained resources, contributing 15–17%. Distributed generation — including solar stations, diesel, and gas units — played an important role in reducing pressure on the grid. However, renewables still have limited impact on evening peak loads due to the dominance of solar generation. During the daytime, under favorable conditions, the share of renewables could reach 15–20%, but their contribution in the evening remained minimal,” noted Olena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Resilience at DiXi Group.
Olena Lapenko noted that electricity imports from the EU during peak load hours served as an additional stabilizing factor. Although the permitted import capacity reached 2.1 GW, it was only partially utilized — in most cases, domestic generation was sufficient to meet demand. Even with an increase in imports compared to the previous year, their share during peak hours did not exceed 8%.
Despite these achievements, the expert highlighted the vulnerability of the grid to potential attacks.
Olena Lapenko also emphasized the critical situation with gas: due to Russian strikes, domestic production was severely affected, and storage reserves dropped to 3 billion cubic meters by the end of winter — and down to just 1 billion in March.
Ukraine’s annual gas demand stands at 19–20 billion cubic meters, of which 12 billion is covered by domestic production. To cover the shortfall in 2025, at least 4 billion cubic meters need to be imported. This volume accounts for only 1.5% of the EU’s total gas imports and will not put significant pressure on the market.
“To ensure strategic security, it is important to sign long-term contracts for two years, as short-term contracts tend to be 10–15% more expensive. In the future, efforts should be made to conclude agreements for 3–5 years. Adhering to the procurement schedule to accumulate 13 billion cubic meters of gas by the 2025–2026 heating season is a key element of the strategy,” explained the DiXi Group expert.
To enhance gas supply security, Ukraine should intensify cooperation with the EU through the AggregateEU mechanism, which would reduce financial pressure on Naftogaz and support the creation of reserves. In addition, it is necessary to reinforce key gas infrastructure facilities, implement early warning systems, and introduce consumption reduction measures — including modernization, a shift to alternative fuels, and more efficient use of resources.
In the second part of the event, representatives from the government and private energy companies joined the discussion to address the challenges they faced during the heating season and the solutions needed to strengthen energy security.
Deputy Minister for Digital Development, Digital Transformations, and Digitalization Roman Andarak emphasized the importance of international support, without which it would have been extremely difficult to get through the heating season.
“We made it through this winter thanks to the coordinated work of energy companies and unprecedented international assistance. But the next season will be even more challenging. The need for resources is growing. Priorities include protecting the energy system, repairing damage, developing decentralized generation, supporting private sector initiatives, communities and condominiums (OSBBs), and securing continued international support,” commented Roman Andarak.
He also noted that current financing needs — particularly for repairs — already exceed €250 million, and international partners are actively contributing both financially and by supplying equipment.
The recently concluded heating season in Ukraine was difficult, but significantly better than the previous one. Mistakes from past years were taken into account, and a substantial stock of backup repair equipment was accumulated, enabling swift restoration of infrastructure damaged by the enemy. This was highlighted by Oleksii Brekht, Acting Chairman of the Management Board of NPC Ukrenergo.
“Thanks to the experience gained, Ukrenergo specialists were able to quickly replace damaged equipment, including performing complex tasks under live voltage. Powerful transformers, which usually take several months to install, were mounted by our teams in just 16–20 days. One high-voltage tower destroyed by the enemy was replaced in just 8 days — a task that used to take contractors around two weeks before the war. This helped minimize power supply disruptions and maintain energy system stability even during numerous attacks on infrastructure,” said Oleksii Brekht.
He also emphasized that Ukraine’s energy system is currently being renewed and modernized. In particular, it now includes an increasing share of highly flexible gas-fired generation.
“As of today, over 200 MW of such capacity is already operational within the energy system. This is what we can see — what is running and participating in the electricity market. This year, we have already held meetings with the Federation of Employers and the European Business Association, and we know that there are a large number of installations that have been built but, for various subjective or objective reasons, are not yet connected to the grid. From our side, we are doing everything possible to ensure that these facilities become part of the market,” emphasized Oleksii Brecht.
Ukraine must continue working toward the development of a new, sustainable energy system capable of operating under conditions of constant uncertainty and high risks, noted Vitaly Butenko, CEO of Energy Company of Ukraine (ECU). He also stressed the importance of distributed generation and the development of electricity trade with Europe as key strategic directions, as well as the urgent need to expand flexible generation capacities.
“In line with the country’s energy policy, supporting new generation projects is a strategic focus for ECU, as it shapes a new market and contributes to energy system regulation. Our mission is to foster its rapid development and economically efficient operation,” said Vitaly Butenko.
First Deputy Head of State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine, Mariia Malaia, spoke about the key measures implemented to support the stability of the energy system and counter energy terrorism. Among the main trends, she highlighted the development of distributed generation, which has driven the launch of new programs.
Mariia Malaia also noted the growing interest in high-efficiency cogeneration units, as they help communities and businesses prepare for the upcoming heating season.
Participants of the event emphasized that, to effectively ensure the country’s energy security, it is essential to expand the capacity of distributed generation and continue developing electricity import capabilities.
The event was moderated by Roman Nitsovych, Research Director at DiXi Group.
You can watch the recording of the Energy Security Talks at the following link: https://bit.ly/4iYIWXq
The event was organized by the NGO DiXi Group within the framework of the project “Enhancing Tomorrow’s Energy Security” with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.
