PASSING THROUGH THE AUTUMN-WINTER PERIOD ENERGY SYSTEM STATUS 2024-2025

ELECTRICITY

Taking into account expert assessments of the availability of generating capacities conducted before the autumn-winter period, the energy system deficit during peak load hours could reach 2-3 GW, provided stable operation of nuclear and thermal generation and availability of electricity imports.

Nuclear generation continues to cover the largest share of electricity demand in Ukraine. Thermal power plants and large combined heat and power plants (CHPPs) also play a significant role, maintaining a share of around 25–30%. The share of renewable energy sources (RES) during sunny daytime hours reached 15–20% of the electricity mix, compared to just 2% during evening hours.

With price caps in place, the share of imports in the power balance structure of Ukraine’s UPS during peak load hours (when this capacity is extremely necessary), according to DiXi Group estimates, did not exceed 8%, although compared to winter [previous year], it has increased multiple times.

MEASURES TO ENHANCE THE SECURITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY:

Support for the construction and integration of new distributed generation capacities, particularly gas-fired
Development of energy storage systems (ESS) and aggregation to balance renewable energy sources (RES)
Continued efforts to protect infrastructure
Addressing the financial issues in the sector (debts to RES producers, imbalances on the balancing market, gas procurement)
Targeted international assistance for recovery and equipment procurement

GAZ:

MEASURES TO STRENGTHEN GAS SUPPLY SECURITY

Ensure sufficient import volumes — at least 4 bcm in 2025 Ukraine’s demand is 19–20 bcm, with domestic production at 12 bcm.
Imports will cover the deficit but are expected to cost $1.6–1.65 billion, based on TTF futures prices as of April 2025 (€34–36/MWh), plus transportation costs (€2–3/MWh).
Sign long-term contracts Short-term contracts are 10–15% more expensive. In the future, Ukraine should aim for 3–5 year agreements to ensure strategic security.
Follow a procurement schedule to accumulate 13 bcm before the 2025–2026 heating season
Attract financing from international and domestic sources
Stimulate gas exchange trading Engage the private sector in stockpiling to ease the burden on Naftogaz.
Utilize European procurement mechanisms The AggregateEU mechanism enables joint gas purchases with European partners,
reducing costs. Importing 4 bcm represents just 1.5% of the EU’s total gas imports (273 bcm), and will not pressure the market.
Accelerate budget support decisions for Naftogaz The government should finalize arrangements by August 2025 to avoid delays ahead of the heating season (as outlined in the Memorandum following the 7th IMF program review). Delays may hinder preparations for winter.

This material was prepared by DiXi Group NGO with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation within the framework of the project “Best Energy Security for Tomorrow”. The material reflects the position of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the International Renaissance Foundation.