The Ukrainian energy system has once again become the enemy’s target – another attack has clearly shown that the Kremlin has not abandoned its plans to leave Ukrainians without electricity. 

What are the consequences of this attack, how did it differ from the previous ones, and how long will the blackouts last Below is a commentary by Olena Lapenko, General Manager of Energy Security at DiXi Group, who answered these questions.

What is the difference from previous attacks on the Ukrainian energy system?

“This attack is different from the last ones. Judging by the geography of the areas of attack, the Russians targeted mainly high-voltage substations, as it was in 2022-2023. As a reminder, in March-June of this year, Russians tried to destroy generating facilities. According to the Ministry of Energy, the total loss of capacity during this period reached 9 GW.”

On the consequences of the large-scale attack

“The consequences of today’s attack were immediately felt by consumers, as emergency power outages were introduced. This is due to the inability to transmit the power generated at the power plants due to damage to the grid elements. The duration of the outage schedules in a particular region will depend on how critical these damages are at each substation. Also, these terms will directly depend on the availability of backup equipment to replace damaged equipment and the flexibility of the network at a particular node to build “workarounds” to power consumers. 

Of course, an attack on Kyivska HPP may also affect the power system, as it is a valuable maneuvering resource to cover peak load. Every megawatt of shunting capacity is very valuable for us.”

What conclusions should be drawn and what to expect in winter

“Another attack on the energy sector and its consequences show that our power system is still not fully protected. The Russians are using missiles and drones not only to hit facilities in areas close to the front line, but also in more remote western regions. That is, we are not the only ones preparing for the winter – repairing, restoring, building. The enemy is also systematically attacking and is not going to stop. Therefore, preparing for the winter means not only strengthening air defense, continuing to strengthen physical protection, restoring what has been destroyed, but also maximizing the preparation of reserves. The availability of backup power sources everywhere, from the level of households and condominiums to municipal pumping stations and boiler houses, is a crucial task at this stage.”