In the absence of new shelling of the power system, the electricity shortage this summer could be from 1.3 to 2.8 GW, depending on weather conditions
These are the possible scenarios for the Ukrainian power generation sector, the DiXI Group team presented during the presentation: Summer Outlooks – own assessment of the power system’s readiness for risks.
In particular, in the part about the electricity sector Olena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Resilience at DiXI Group, noted that in case of further destruction of shunting generation as a result of the aggressor’s shelling, the power shortage will only increase.
In summer, the electricity shortage will be exacerbated by the fact that this is the period when NPPs, CHPPs and TPPs undergo scheduled repairs of their units. This is necessary for the generation to operate without interruptions in winter, said Roman Hrabchak Head of the Balancing Reliability Department at NPC UKRENERGO.
Ukrenergo estimates that the highest loads on the power system will be in July. Ukrhydroenergo is already preparing for this period of increased demand, says Bohdan Sukhetskyi, Deputy CEO for Commercial Activities.
Hydro generation has also been damaged by Russian shelling. Even so, Ukrhydroenergo is now accumulating water as much as possible to provide the power system with the necessary kilowatts on difficult days.
Military risks remain the biggest threat to the security of gas supply in Ukraine. All other scenarios, such as a decrease in gas production by private companies or an increase in gas consumption, can be levelled out by additional instruments for the purchase of the resource.
In recent months, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian gas storage facilities in the western part of the country, where storage capacity is more than 80% of the total. Therefore, said Olena Lapenko the purpose of such attacks is to undermine Ukraine’s energy security
Despite the attacks Naftogaz plans to increase Ukrainian fuel production by 4% this year. This figure was announced during the discussion by Svitlana Ivanchuk, Head of the Commercial Management Department Naftogaz of Ukraine.
Thus, according to the forecast, Ukraine will go through the winter period of 2024/25 using only domestically produced blue fuel as it was in the last winter period (2023/24).
Drilling new wells is an indicator of the success of the gas production industry, said Artem Petrenko Executive Director of the Association of Gas Producers of Ukraine. And we already have results – in the first quarter of 2024, 46 rigs drilled new wells, which is 4 more than in the same period in 2023.
The event was held with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation as part of the project ‘Improving Energy Security for Tomorrow’.
