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Weekly analytical report 20 – 26 May, 2020

 

In this issue:

– The government’s first steps to stabilize the situation in the electricity market look cautious and do not significantly change the position of Energoatom…

– Despite promises, the government and investors in renewable energy still haven’t reached a compromise, which continues to fuel tensions in the market and only aggravates debt issues…

– In addition to the General Court of the EU ruling, the unfavorable situation for Russian gas sales is seriously weakening Gazprom’s ability to implement its pipeline projects…

– Ukrainian players of the gas market, including GTSOU which has difficulties with collecting debts for imbalances, also use the service of gas storage under “customs warehouse” regime…

– Despite volatile prices in global markets, Ukraine is testing new routes of oil imports and delivering resources for domestic oil refineries…


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Comments

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Daryna Kulaha

Junior analyst DiXi Group

The government’s intentions to postpone EU environmental requirements are unlikely to receive the foreign partners’ support

The Ministry of Energy has recently resumed work on the implementation of the National Emissions Reduction Plan for Large Combustion Plants (the NERP), but soon proposed to postpone its implementation.

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Olha Polunina

Sustainable Development Manager

Approved reporting forms are a step towards greater transparency in production

The government has finally approved reporting forms for extractive companies developed, inter alia, with the participation of DiXi Group experts.

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Daryna Kulaha

Junior analyst DiXi Group

No effective solutions on debts to “green” generation have been proposed yet

The government has actually held the Regulator and the transmission system operator fully responsible for resolving the situation

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Olena Pavlenko

DiXi Group President

Halting Nord Stream 2 must become a part of the EU’s “single voice”

The tragic poisoning of Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny changed the stance of the German political elite. The insistence on purely German interests has weakened, and today, Germany is more open to forming a common European stance as far as interaction and communication with Russia are concerned.

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Roman Nitsovych

DiXi Group Research Director

What the new law on “green” energy “fell short” of

It seemed that the long-running “serial” of political discussions between the government and investors in renewable energy has ended. But in fact, the new law may not solve the problem after all, as there are at least five reasons for that.

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Roman Nitsovych, Research Director, DiXi Group

Darina Kulaga, expert consultant

Only an increase in the transmission tariff will not solve the crisis in the electricity market

The tariff increase will not affect electricity prices for household and small non-household consumers, but will be felt for industry and other consumer groups. The main purpose of this step is to ensure stable revenues for timely payments to producers of electricity from renewable sources.

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Bohdan Serebrennikov

Manager on consultancy and analytical services

The current electricity market is not yet the model we are striving for

The current market, with many regulatory price caps, unbalanced RES support policy, non-market prices for the population and an existing mechanism of assignment of special obligations (ASO), is not like the model being built in the EU.

On the way to the gas market. What changes the regulator’s decision and what needs to be done?

National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) adopted the decision simplifying the procedure for changing the gas supplier for household consumers

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Bohdan Serebrennikov

Manager on consultancy and analytical services

04 ЧЕРВНЯ 2020

Ukrainian model of Public Service Obligations significantly distorts the electricity market

Since electricity prices are the same for the entire population throughout Ukraine, the current PSO model protects not only economically vulnerable but also wealthy consumers, which seems economically unjustified. Moreover, prices for households have not changed since March 1, 2017.

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Bohdan Serebrennikov

Manager on consultancy and analytical services

01 ЧЕРВНЯ 2020

Lack of prerequisites for unbundling of electricity bills

However, current tariff, even its upper rate, does not reflect real costs incurred for the production, procurement and supply of electricity to households, since the country uses hidden cross-subsidization of the population through the mechanism of Public Service Obligations (PSO).

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Roman Nitsovych, DiXi Group Research Director

Anastasiia Synytsia, Analytical Department Trainee

26 ТРАВНЯ 2020

European Green Deal and Ukrainian energy: quo vadis?

During the operation of the united Ministry of Energy, it was not possible to synchronize the climate and energy directions. For more than 6 months the government and key participants of the renewable energy market have been unable to agree on a solution to the industry’s problems.

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Roman Nitsovych

DiXi Group Research Director

18 MAY 2020

Decision concerning Nord Stream 2: the final victory still needs to be fought for

The decision of German regulatory authority, BNetzA, concerning the legal framework in which Nord Stream 2 can operate represents an interim victory of Ukraine.

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Andrii Ursta

trainee at DiXi Group Analytics Section

15 APRIL 2020

How steady is the trend of declining fuel prices?

Pricing in Ukraine’s retail market for petroleum products draws close attention from both consumers and public authorities. Telling facts in this sense are meetings of the President with representatives of filling station chains or the AMCU’s in-depth analysis of actions of petroleum products market participants, which the agency started in January of this year.

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Roman Nitsovych

Research Director

13 КВІТНЯ 2020

Oil producers unite before the danger of “execution”

If implemented, the preliminary agreement of OPEC+ countries will allow to somewhat stabilize oil prices in the nearest few months, but it remains to be seen whether it will restore the balance of demand and supply in the market.

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Olha Polunina

Manager for Sustainable Development

10 APRIL 2020

EIA: a problem or an indispensable element of sustainable development?

Back in 2016, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed the Environmental Impact Assessment Law. From the very beginning, the implementation of this legislative act has bumped into obstacles: the law was vetoed after an appeal by the Association of Pig Breeders of Ukraine, whose representatives believed that it would bring their industry to a standstill.

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Bohdan Serebrennikov

Manager on consultancy and analytical services

09 APRIL 2020

Coronavirus and systemic imbalances of the electricity market

Today’s crisis in the electricity market is not just a concurrence of circumstances caused by a seasonal factor and by quarantine restrictions. These factors vividly illustrated, and stretched almost to its limits, the vulnerability of the system in which Ukraine’s electricity market functions in its present form.

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Roman Nitsovych

Research Director

08 APRIL 2020

A “perfect storm” in the oil market

Today’s situation in the global oil market is a “perfect storm” for oil producing countries, but for countries importing petroleum products, it presents an opportunity to stock oil on the cheap.

Our platforms

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Website of the coalition which unites experts from leading think tanks and NGOs in the field of energy and environment 

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National website of Extractive Industries Transparensy Initiative in Ukraine 

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Information and analitical website “Ukrainian Energy UA-Energy.org” is unique   platform to inform

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Independent platform for public dialogue on the issues of unconventional gas exploration and production

Our platforms

img

Website of the coalition which unites experts from leading think tanks and NGOs in the field of energy and environment 

img

National website of Extractive Industries Transparensy Initiative in Ukraine 

img

Information and analitical website “Ukrainian Energy UA-Energy.org” is unique   platform to inform

img

Independent platform for public dialogue on the issues of unconventional gas exploration and production