Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review

Dear subscribers! Due to the suspension of funding for all US foreign assistance programmes for 90 days, the weekly review ‘Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension’, which used to be prepared within the framework of the USAID Energy Sector Transparency project, will be temporarily published in a limited format – as a summary of the main events in the sector.

At the same time, DiXi Group NGO has prepared a survey for subscribers to receive feedback on the priority thematic sections of the review that should be continued to be covered. This will allow the team to match the interests of readers with available resources and develop an optimal format for the weekly review during the period of suspension of USAID support.

We would like to thank our audience for their continued interest in the weekly review ‘Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Energy Dimension’. We would also like to assure you that we will continue to look for opportunities to develop this information and analytical product in order to meet the interest of our audience in a timely and high–quality manner.

Survey in English (for international readers)

March 10 – 16

Over the course of six days of the week (10-14 and 16 March), power supply was restored to 183,509 customers.
According to Svitlana Hrinchuk, Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, this year, Ukraine is to approve its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), taking into account the changes that have taken place since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion.
US President Donald Trump said that representatives of the US and Ukraine had discussed control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP as part of a possible peace deal.
According to the IAEA, Ukrainian firefighters have eliminated the emergency situation at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant after a drone strike on the New Safe Confinement last month. As of 13 March, no new fires have been reported at the facility for 10 days.
Commercial electricity exports increased by 3.2 times over the week to 25.5 GWh. In turn, electricity imports decreased by 47% to 36 GWh.
The monthly Base BCM (bilateral contracts market) index for March remained at 5,611.1 UAH/MWh (+3.6% compared to February).
Demand on the day–ahead market continued to decline as in the previous week, which was reflected in the average hourly electricity price for the week (Base DAM index), which decreased to 4,874 UAH/MWh (–3.5%); the total volume of electricity sold on the DAM in the reporting week reduced to 510.1 GWh (–16.5%).
The number of deficit settlement periods (hours) on the day–ahead market decreased to 0.6% (compared to 11.9% the previous week).
President Zelenskyy signed a law allowing Ukraine to purchase two Russian VVER–1000 reactors from Bulgaria to complete the third and fourth power units of the Khmelnytskyy NPP. Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko said that the Bulgarian government is already preparing a decision on the sale of the reactors to Ukraine.
The National Bank reports that over the past nine months, Ukrainian banks have financed energy infrastructure restoration projects worth UAH 14.1 billion, with most of the funds accounting for the purchase of gas engine cogeneration units (219
MW), construction of solar power plants (162 MW), and purchase of diesel and petrol generators (124 MW).
The first 2025 auction to allocate a 33 MW support quota for new solar power plants (SPPs) ended unsuccessfully due to a lack of bids.
In January–February 2025, imports of electric generating sets to Ukraine totalled USD 345 million, up 706% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
Physical gas imports for the reporting week (9–15 March) was equal to 56.5 mcm from Hungary (–15.6% WoW), 2.8 mcm from Moldova (–63.1%), and 2.7 mcm from Poland (–89.2%).
As of 15 March, 1.2 bcm of gas was accumulated in Ukrainian underground storages (3.8% of the total working capacity), withdrawals (during 9–15 March) amounting to 124.5 mcm (–55.8% week–on–week).
The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine published a draft order aimed at regulating and clearly defining the rules for market participants’ access to intra–industrial gas pipelines (i.e. upstream pipelines), in particular for those companies that do not have a direct connection to the main gas infrastructure.
In an interview with international media, Dmytro Lyppa, CEO of Ukraine’s GTS Operator, said that Ukraine may import at least 4 bcm of gas between April and October 2025 to compensate for the loss of domestic production due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The gas will be imported primarily via LNG terminals in Poland, Lithuania, Greece and Germany.
The USAID terminated a USD 75 million grant agreement with the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, while Iceland increased its contribution to the Fund by EUR 2 million and Canada made an additional contribution of EUR 33.4 million.