Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review

Dear subscribers! Due to the suspension of funding for all US foreign assistance programmes for 90 days, the weekly review ‘Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension’, which used to be prepared within the framework of the USAID Energy Sector Transparency project, will be temporarily published in a limited format – as a summary of the main events in the sector.

At the same time, DiXi Group NGO has prepared a survey for subscribers to receive feedback on the priority thematic sections of the review that should be continued to be covered. This will allow the team to match the interests of readers with available resources and develop an optimal format for the weekly review during the period of suspension of USAID support.

We would like to thank our audience for their continued interest in the weekly review ‘Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Energy Dimension’. We would also like to assure you that we will continue to look for opportunities to develop this information and analytical product in order to meet the interest of our audience in a timely and high–quality manner.

Survey in English (for international readers)

March 17 – 23

Over six days of the week (March 17-21 and 23), electricity supply was restored to 243,968 consumers – the Ministry of Energy.
Ukraine prepared the first integrated report on the implementation of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) and submitted it to the Energy Community on March 15.
Commercial electricity exports fell by 88% to 3 GWh over the week, while imports increased by 133% to 83.8 GWh.
The monthly Base BCM (bilateral contracts market) index for March remained at 5,611.1 UAH/MWh (+3.6% compared to February).
The average hourly price of electricity on the day–ahead market (DAM Base index) increased to 5,069.9 UAH /MWh over the week (+4% compared to the previous week). The total volume of electricity sales on the Ukrainian day–ahead market increased to 526 GWh (+3.1%), the number of deficit settlement periods (hours) increased to 3.6% (compared to 0.6% last week).
The NEURC approved Ukrenergo’s investment program for 2025 in the amount of UAH 2.98 billion (excluding VAT) with the definition of its sources of financing (depreciation, profit on capital investments, loans, etc.).
Ukrenergo reported losses of UAH 37.7 billion in FY2024, despite an increase in net income to UAH 101.1 billion (21% more than in 2023).
Ukraine Energy Support Fund has a deficit of about USD 500 million based on requests from Ukrainian energy companies, Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko says.
Physical gas imports from Hungary during the reporting week (March 16–22) amounted to 49.4 mcm (–14.3% compared to the previous week), while imports from Moldova were equal to 4.2 mcm (+53.5%).
According to a foreign media, the European Commission is considering a plan to resolve the dispute between Ukraine and Slovakia over the termination of Russian gas transit. The plan is based on the use of Ukrainian underground gas storage (UGS) facilities. According to the proposal, Ukraine will increase gas imports from Greece and Turkey and will be able to store up to 10 bcm in its UGS facilities, which will be transported in winter through Slovak pipelines to other European countries, such as Hungary. This will allow the EU to avoid buying Russian gas and at the same time maintain transit flows through Slovakia.
As of March 22, 1 bcm of gas was accumulated in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS), or 3.3% of their total working volume (excluding 4.662 bcm of ‘long–term storage’ gas). During the reporting week, the withdrawals amounted to 173.7 mcm (+39.5% compared to the previous week).
The Ministry of Energy published a draft order amending the Methodology for Determining the Cost of Natural Gas Losses (Leakage) Due to Damage to Gas Infrastructure as a Result of Russia’s Armed Aggression. The amendments provide for the inclusion of gas transmission system operator (GTS Operator of Ukraine LLC) and gas storages operator (Ukrtransgaz JSC) in the Methodology and clarify the formula for calculating the cost of gas losses.
Naftogaz of Ukraine signed a second contract with Polish company ORLEN for the supply of additional 100 mcm of US LNG. The gas will be delivered to Ukraine in April and will be used to create a strategic fuel reserve for the next heating season.
According to media reports, retail fuel prices demonstrated a decline last week. As of March 21, the average price of A–95 petroleum decreased by UAH 0.85 to 55.82 UAH per liter. Premium petroleum (A–95+) fell by UAH 0.85 to 59.35 UAH/l, diesel – by UAH 0.74 to 54.46 UAH/l. The retail price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) decreased by UAH 0.51 to 36.44 UAH/l.
The EU Council approved EUR 3.5 billion in funding for Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility programme, of which EUR 400 million are grants; the funds will be used for priority social and humanitarian expenditures of the state budget.
According to media reports, the administration of US President Donald Trump proposes to include in the mineral agreement with Ukraine the right to own or manage Ukrainian nuclear power plants, including the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the parties discussed US participation in the restoration and modernization of only Zaporizhzhia NPP, which is currently under Russian occupation, and that Ukraine is open to US investment in this particular facility.
The Netherlands will contribute EUR 65 million to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund.