Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review

Dear subscribers! Due to the suspension of funding for all US foreign assistance programmes for 90 days, the weekly review ‘Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension’, which used to be prepared within the framework of the USAID Energy Sector Transparency project, will be temporarily published in a limited format – as a summary of the main events in the sector.

At the same time, DiXi Group NGO has prepared a survey for subscribers to receive feedback on the priority thematic sections of the review that should be continued to be covered. This will allow the team to match the interests of readers with available resources and develop an optimal format for the weekly review during the period of suspension of USAID support.

We would like to thank our audience for their continued interest in the weekly review ‘Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Energy Dimension’. We would also like to assure you that we will continue to look for opportunities to develop this information and analytical product in order to meet the interest of our audience in a timely and high–quality manner.

Survey in English (for international readers)

February 17 – 23

Over the past week, Russia attacked Ukraine with almost 1150 attack drones, over 1400 guided aerial bombs and 35 missiles of various types – President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Over six days of the week (February 17–21 and 23), electricity supply was restored to 319,215 consumers – Ministry of Energy.
The radiation background at the New Safe Confinement (NSC) and Chornobyl NPP industrial site remains within normal limits, works to eliminate the consequences of the February 14 attack continue – SSE Chornobyl NPP.
The government allocated more than UAH 1.5 billion to keep the Chornobyl NPP site safe after the latest attack, increasing funding by UAH 139 million compared to 2024.
The Cabinet of Ministers approved a plan to implement a national emissions trading system, with a test launch scheduled for 2028.
Electricity exports from Ukraine took place only on February 23 and increased by 2.6 times (to 1 GWh) over the week, while imports also continued to increase (68.5 GWh, +8%).
The monthly Base BCM (bilateral contracts market) Index for March was at 5,665 UAH/MWh (+4.6% compared to the Index for February).
The average hourly price of electricity on the day–ahead market increased to 6,139.4 UAH/MWh (+4.3%).
The number of deficit settlement periods (hours) in the day–ahead market increased to 31.6% (compared to 9% in the previous week).
The Cabinet of Ministers approved the Government’s Priority Action Plan for 2025, which, among other things, includes the adoption of a roadmap for separating the renewable energy surcharge from the transmission tariff and the adoption of a law to strengthen the NEURC’s independence.
The NEURC launched an investigation into potential manipulations in the electricity balancing market that could have affected the determination of the settlement price of imbalances.
Physical imports of gas from Hungary amounted to 65.4 mcm over the reporting week (February 16–22) (+13.8% compared to the previous week), 86.3 mcm from Slovakia (+18.5%), 2.7 mcm from Romania (–63.9%), and 21.3 mcm from Poland (+36.8%).
Given the impact of Russian shelling on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, the Cabinet of Ministers instructed Naftogaz of Ukraine to develop a gas import strategy to cover possible shortages in the gas transmission system.
As of February 22, 1.9 bcm of gas was accumulated in Ukrainian underground storages (6.8% of the total working volume), withdrawals in the reporting week amounted to 481 mcm (–0.9% compared to the previous week).
Last week, Ukrtransgaz (the gas storages operator) purchased 47.6 mcm of imported natural gas at a weighted average price of 31 UAH per cubic meter (excluding VAT).
The Ministry of Energy published the draft Hydrogen Strategy of Ukraine until 2050 and a report on its strategic environmental assessment.
According to media reports, the average retail price of A–95 gasoline increased by 0.03 UAH to 56.90 UAH/liter, while premium A–95 went up by 0.13 UAH to 60.19 UAH/liter.
The IMF mission and Ukrainian authorities started negotiations on the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. Prior to the seventh review, Ukraine has to fulfill 12 structural benchmarks in the financial and fiscal sectors, as well as in public administration. A successful review of the program will result in Ukraine receiving funding of about USD 917.5 million.
Ukraine and Moldova signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in European Integration. The document envisages the exchange of knowledge, experience and practices for successful preparation for accession and full membership in the European Union