WINTER OUTLOOK 2024/2025: GAS
The analysis of possible scenarios shows that the risk of military attacks or deterioration of the situation at the frontline remains the biggest threat to the security of gas supply. All other scenarios – a decrease in gas production by private companies, which has already been recorded in 2024 compared to previous years, or an increase in gas consumption – can be levelled by additional imports and increased gas production by state-owned companies.
At the same time, Russian attacks on electricity generating facilities (some of the TPPs and CHPs destroyed by missile attacks used gas to generate electricity) affect gas consumption during the winter months. In previous years, the amount of gas needed to generate electricity reached 2.5 bcm. This forecast is indirectly confirmed by the target for gas accumulation in the 2024/2025 winter season, set at a minimum level of 13 bcm. Last year, the same figure was 14 bcm.
Key indicators of the forecast of natural gas sufficiency for the Winter Olympics 2024/2025:
Target level of gas accumulation for the Winter Olympics 2024-2025: 13 bcm.
Actual accumulation as of 15 October 2024: 12.3 bcm.
Forecasted gas withdrawals for the 2024-2025 IAU: 6.5-7 bcm.
Current daily production: 53.5 mcm/day (+1 mcm compared to compared to the previous year).
The main challenges for Ukraine’s gas system remain military threats related to constant attacks on gas infrastructure and possible damage to above-ground facilities of underground gas storage facilities. Risks to production infrastructure are particularly dangerous. From a technical perspective, there are potential difficulties with gas extraction due to damage to the above-ground infrastructure and risks to compressor stations.
Weather conditions are an additional risk factor, as prolonged low temperatures may result in a 5-6% increase in gas consumption.
Despite the challenging situation, there are a number of positive trends in Ukraine’s gas sector. Domestic gas production has been steadily increasing, which strengthens the country’s energy independence. Ukraine maintains reliable access to imports and has the opportunity to participate in joint gas purchases. An additional factor in optimising consumption was the reduction in gas use for electricity generation due to damage to generating equipment.
The baseline scenario shows moderate optimism. Despite the existing risks and challenges, Ukraine has all the prerequisites to successfully complete the 2024-2025 heating season. It is expected that about 6.5-7 bcm of gas will remain in underground storage facilities at the end of the season. This forecast is based on three key factors: steady growth in domestic production, implementation of a balanced policy on imports, and the availability of sufficient gas reserves in storage facilities.
