WINTER OUTLOOK 2024/2025 ELECTRICITY
This analytical document examines the state of Ukraine’s energy system on the eve of the winter period of 2024-2025, assesses key risks and highlights potential scenarios for ensuring energy security in times of war. The analysis is based on the methodology of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, which takes into account the principles of short-term and seasonal
adequacy of power systems. The key indicators of Ukraine’s energy system as of November 2024 demonstrate significant losses of generating capacity caused by regular shelling of energy infrastructure facilities. During the first 8 months of the year, total capacity losses exceeded 9 GW.
A significant decline in production capacities was observed in the thermal and hydro generation segments during this period. A large-scale repair campaign in the run-up to the 2024/2025 Wintershift has already added almost 3 GW of additional capacity to the grid, but another large-scale shelling on 17 November 2024 again targeted generating facilities at a transmission system substation. In the summer of 2024, renewable generation reached a record high in the overall balance (17-18%), but this share is expected to decline by 40-70% in the winter season.
Nuclear power plants remain a key element in ensuring energy stability, with a maximum capacity of 7.5 GW, covering up to 55% of winter demand. Imports of electricity from the EU are also an important condition for uninterrupted supply, with the volume of imports planned to increase to 2.1 GW.
Key risks of passing the heating season:
– Intense shelling of energy infrastructure increases the likelihood of of unplanned outages and destruction of electricity generation and transmission facilities. Damage to thermal generation and substations that support the distribution of power from nuclear power plants is particularly critical.
– Deficit of hydro resources – low water levels in the Dnipro cascade reservoirs complicate the stability of hydroelectric power plants and limit the balancing of the power system during peak periods.
– High demand in winter – peak consumption in winter is expected to reach 18.5 GW, which creates a shortage in the grid, especially in case of lower temperatures.
