Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review

Dear subscribers! Due to the suspension of funding for all US foreign assistance programmes for 90 days, the weekly review ‘Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension’, which used to be prepared within the framework of the USAID Energy Sector Transparency project, will be temporarily published in a limited format – as a summary of the main events in the sector.

At the same time, DiXi Group NGO has prepared a survey for subscribers to receive feedback on the priority thematic sections of the review that should be continued to be covered. This will allow the team to match the interests of readers with available resources and develop an optimal format for the weekly review during the period of suspension of USAID support.

We would like to thank our audience for their continued interest in the weekly review ‘Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Energy Dimension’. We would also like to assure you that we will continue to look for opportunities to develop this information and analytical product in order to meet the interest of our audience in a timely and high–quality manner.

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March 24 – 30

On March 24-25, electricity supply was restored to 104,219 consumers who were disconnected f as a result of the hostilities – Ministry of Energy.
On the night of March 28, for the eighth time in 2025, Russia launched a combined attack on Naftogaz Group assets, damaging gas production facilities.
According to media reports, Ukraine submitted and agreed with the United States a list of energy facilities that Russia should stop striking as part of the partial ceasefire. However, the list published by the Russian side as allegedly agreed with the United States does not include Ukrainian oil and gas production facilities, which have been the target of most recent attacks.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said in a commentary to foreign media that a relatively quick but gradual restart of the Zaporizhzhya NPP (ZNPP) is possible. The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine (SNRIU) responded by stating that the military seizure of ZNPP by the Russian occupiers makes it impossible to operate the facility safely. Any changes in the terms of the licenses for the operation of ZNPP units are possible only after de–occupation, demilitarization, demining and a comprehensive safety inspection of all systems and facilities of the plant.
Commercial electricity export increased almost 13 times over the week to 38.2 GWh. In turn, electricity imports fell by 42% to 48.5 GWh.
The monthly index of the Base BCM (bilateral contracts market) for April was formed at 4,782.5 UAH/MWh (–14.8% compared to the index of March).
The average hourly price of electricity on the day–ahead market (DAM Base index) increased to 5,441.8 UAH/MWh over the week (+7.3% compared to the previous week); the total volume of electricity sold on the Ukrainian day–ahead market decreased to 518.7 GWh (–1.4%).
Oschadbank has entered into an investment loan agreement with KNESS Group worth EUR 9.6 million for the construction of energy storage facilities with a total capacity of 30 MW. The project is co–financed by the EBRD, and the energy storage
facilities are planned to be commissioned in October 2025 to provide ancillary services.
During the reporting week (March 23–29), physical imports of gas amounted to 47.2 mcm from Hungary (–4.5% compared to the previous week), 2.6 mcm from Poland, and 3.3 mcm from Moldova (–22.3%).
As of March 29, 0.9 bcm of gas was accumulated in Ukrainian underground storages (2.9% of the total working volume); withdrawals in the reporting week amounted to 98.5 mcm (–43.3% compared to the previous week).
On March 24–28, 30 mcm of gas (1.7 times more than the previous week) were sold at the Ukrainian Energy Exchange at a weighted average price of 15 UAH per cubic meter excluding VAT (–5.3%). 94.1% of the resource was purchased by LLC GTS Operator of Ukraine.
The Cabinet of Ministers extended the mechanism of imposing public service obligations (PSO) on natural gas market until October 31, 2025. According to the governmental decision, the PSO was also extended to Ukrnafta, which is now obliged to sell gas to Naftogaz at 12 UAH per cubic meter (including VAT). At the same time, regulated gas prices for power plants producing electricity in the heat cycle were increased from 16.5 to 18 UAH per cubic meter. For gas turbine and gas piston plants that produce only electricity, the regulated price was reduced from 16.5 to 14 UAH per cubic meter, while for combined heat and power plants, the regulated price was increased to 18 UAH/cm.
The NEURC approved the Gas Storage Development Plan for 2025–2034, with a total planned funding of over UAH 31 billion (excluding VAT) for 10 years, of which UAH 1.09 billion is planned to be spent in 2025.
The EBRD has approved a loan of up to EUR 270 million for Naftogaz to purchase natural gas for the next two heating seasons; additionally, the Norwegian government will provide about EUR 140 million in grants through the EBRD for similar purposes, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the seventh review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine. Successful review enabled the eighth tranche from the IMF in the amount
of about USD 400 million (SDR 300.47 million). The review also resulted in an updated Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, which, among other things, provides for the deployment of 0.9 GW of decentralized gas generation and imports of 4 bcm of gas in 2025.
The Government of Norway, in partnership with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), donated energy equipment to three Ukrainian energy companies, including critical energy equipment to Ukrgazvydobuvannya, two autotransformers to Ukrenergo and gas engine installations with a total capacity of 150 MW to Naftogaz.