Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review

November 13 – 19

Summary

• • Among the attacks – shelling of a TPP in the Donetsk region with an outage in the satellite city, damage to gas pipelines in the Kharkiv region, and a strike on an oil depot in the Odesa region.
  • As of November 20, 444 settlements in Ukraine remained without power supply, there is a problem with the supply of heating agent to boilers in the city of Kherson due to the repair of power grids.
  • Russia has been conducting between 102 and 293 cyberattacks per month, most of which target critical energy infrastructure – State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection.
  • Reacting to a series of messages in social networks, both the NEURC and the Ministry of Energy denied information on the alleged increase in electricity price for households from January 1, 2024.
  • On November 14, due to the actions of Russian invaders and Rosatom employees, a partial blackout occurred at the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. At Unit 6, diesel generators and security systems launched for 90 minutes. At Unit 5, reagents continue to leak from the first circuit to the second one, and despite violations, the occupation authorities are not transferring the unit to a “cold shutdown” state.
  • Ukraine had successfully completed the first month of the heating season – so the PM Denys Shmyhal. Almost 16 bcm of gas have been accumulated in storages, 1.1 million tonnes of coal in warehouses, almost 1.9 GW of generating capacity (+1.3 GW to be restored by the end of 2023) and 445 district heating facilities restored.
  • Energoatom completed scheduled maintenance and, from now on, all NPP units located in the territory controlled by Ukraine are operating at full capacity. DTEK Energo contracted an additional 70,000 tons of steam coal from Poland, supplies are to be provided during the heating season.
  • Trading on the bilateral contracts market showed a downward trend for the third week. The Base BCM index for November remained at 3,859.6 UAH/MWh, the index for December stood at 4,101.0 UAH/MWh. Prices on the day-ahead market (in surplus) were less volatile and in most periods higher that DAM prices in the countries of Eastern Europe.
  • The Regulator proposed to set 2024 tariff for electricity transmission service at 592.89 UAH/MWh w/o VAT (+33% to the average tariff for 2023) and tariff for dispatching at 100.37 UAH/MWh w/o VAT (+18%).
  • Given the ban on the exports of gas produced in Ukraine, exports began of the resource by non-residents which previously injected for storage in the “customs warehouse” mode. 18 mcm were transmitted via the VIP Ukraine-Poland.
  • Part of the volumes exiting the system to Moldova was also presumably gas stored by Moldovan companies in Ukrainian facilities. Withdrawals totaled 222 mcm, the average daily withdrawal rate stood at 31.7 mcm.
  • The average retail price of LPG increased up to 35.37 UAH/l. Among the reasons are problems with the imports due to strikes by Polish carriers at the border and a deficit of free volumes on southern supply routes.
  • Centre for Advancement in Restoration and Modernisation Capacity (CARMC) was launched with the support of the World Bank Group.
  • The government simplified the imports of power equipment, including generators and transformers, to Ukraine. Six technical regulations have been suspended, including the requirement for a declaration of conformity and conformity marking.
  • The Ministry of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development, together with GIZ and some NGOs, has announced a competition for renewable energy projects. 16 communities will receive funding to install solar panels and heat pumps in public buildings.
  • Denmark will make a 7 million EUR grant contribution to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, which will be used to purchase equipment.
  • The Ministry of Energy and Tetra Tech, Inc. signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in Mine Action to safely restore Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure.