GAS BALANCE
Natural gas supply in Ukraine during the 2025-2026 heating season is taking place under unprecedented challenges caused by systematic attacks on gas infrastructure and the need to
compensate for lost production capacity through intensified imports. Gross gas consumption in 2024 amounted to 21.93 bcm, which is 2.47% more than in 2023 (21.4 bcm). Analysis of the consumption structure shows that households used 7.1 bcm (32%), industry and other sectors — 5.7 bcm (26%), district heating enterprises (household heating) — 3.3 bcm (15%), and for heating purposes of other consumers — 3.0 bcm (14%).
Thus, gas imports over 11 months of 2025 (5.7 bcm) became critically important for ensuring energy security. During the injection season (April-October), almost 4.2 bcm was imported, which is more than three times higher than the figure for the same period in 2024. Contracts for LNG supply through the Klaipėda terminal and the GIPL pipeline, as well as the development of the Vertical Corridor, demonstrate a strategic focus on diversifying gas sources.
FORECASTING RESULTS
The scenario is based on the assumption of a moderately warm winter (comparable to the 2024–2025 season), without extreme temperature anomalies and with no new critical damage to gas infrastructure.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
The alternative scenario considers potential deviations from the baseline forecast due to unfavorable weather conditions, continued intensive enemy attacks (and, consequently, infrastructure losses), or a combination of these negative factors. For example, prolonged low temperatures (average daily temperature 3-5°C below normal for 60-90 days) lead to a significant increase in gas consumption.
This material was prepared by DiXi Group NGO with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation within the framework of the project “Best Energy Security for Tomorrow” The material reflects the position of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the International Renaissance Foundation.