Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension | DiXi Group Alert – weekly review

Dear subscribers! Due to the suspension of funding for all US foreign assistance programmes for 90 days, the weekly review ‘Russian War Against Ukraine: Energy Dimension’, which used to be prepared within the framework of the USAID Energy Sector Transparency project, will be temporarily published in a limited format – as a summary of the main events in the sector.

At the same time, DiXi Group NGO has prepared a survey for subscribers to receive feedback on the priority thematic sections of the review that should be continued to be covered. This will allow the team to match the interests of readers with available resources and develop an optimal format for the weekly review during the period of suspension of USAID support.

We would like to thank our audience for their continued interest in the weekly review ‘Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Energy Dimension’. We would also like to assure you that we will continue to look for opportunities to develop this information and analytical product in order to meet the interest of our audience in a timely and high–quality manner.

Survey in English (for international readers)

April 21 – 27

Ukraine’s power system remained balanced throughout the week. At the beginning of the week, electricity consumption was lower due to significant warming and a holiday and partially non-working day. Since Tuesday, there has been an increase in the load, which is explained by the resumption of business activity in the post-holiday period.
On April 17, seven drones were spotted 2 km east of the South Ukrainian NPP site – the IAEA.
Ukraine will receive EUR 22.6 million under the European Instrument for International Nuclear Safety Cooperation to ensure nuclear safety, improve radiation protection and radioactive waste management.
Commercial electricity exports increased by 81% to 63.6 GWh over the week, while electricity imports fell by 57% to 11.5 GWh. Thus, Ukraine recorded a positive weekly balance in electricity trade for the second week in a row.
The monthly Base BCM (bilateral contracts market) index for May was at 3,894.7 UAH/MWh (–18.6% compared to the April index).
Over the week, the average hourly price of electricity on the day–ahead market (DAM Base index) decreased to 4,000.6 UAH/MWh (–7.2%). The total volume of electricity sold on the Ukrainian DAM decreased to 464.6 GWh (–8.2%).
The Auction Committee for the Sale of Electricity under Bilateral Contracts approved amendments to the Rules for Holding Electricity Auctions at the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, introducing a mandatory guarantee fee of 5% of the starting price of the
lot, which shall remain in force for the entire term of the bilateral contract; all auctions announced from 21 April 2025 will be held with this mechanism in place.
The NEURC approved the draft law amending the Law ‘On Alternative Energy Sources’, which aims to create a basis for expanding demand for Ukrainian guarantees of origin of electricity from renewable energy sources by ensuring their recognition in the Contracting Parties to the Energy Community and in the EU Member States. The document, in particular, provides for the application of the principle of reciprocity in the recognition of guarantees of origin issued by the EU Member States and the Contracting Parties to the Energy Community and clarifies the provisions on disclosure of information on the origin of electricity using the annual estimated residual energy mix.
National Bank of Ukraine’s April 2025 Inflation Report: Electricity shortages caused by Russian strikes are expected to reach 3% in 2025, 1% in 2026, and less than 1% in 2027; to cover the residual deficit, sustainable electricity imports of about USD 0.5 billion annually will be needed. At the same time, due to damage to the gas infrastructure, Ukraine’s own production will be insufficient, so gas imports, partly at the expense of international assistance, will increase to USD 2.9 billion in 2025, USD 1.1 billion in 2026, and USD 0.4 billion in 2027.
In January–March 2025, DTEK Energy invested UAH 1.2 billion (a third of last year’s expenses) in urgent repairs and restoration of thermal power plants, which have been attacked 205 times since the start of the full–scale invasion.
Physical imports of gas from Hungary during the reporting week (April 20–26) amounted to 46.6 million cubic meters (–4.12% compared to the previous week), 23.1 million cubic meters (–3.9%) from Poland, and 1.4 million cubic meters (–70.3%) from Moldova.
As of April 26, 0.83 bcm of gas was accumulated in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS), or 2.8% of the total working volume. During the reporting week, 143.3 million cubic meters were injected into the UGSs (12.3 times more than the previous week).
Ukraine and the EBRD signed an agreement under which Naftogaz will receive EUR 270 million loan for emergency gas purchases to ensure the company’s liquidity and the smooth passing of the 2025–2026 heating season.
Naftogaz and Poland’s ORLEN signed a third contract for the supply of an additional 100 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States (with regasification in Świnoujście terminal and transit through the Polish GTS), bringing the total volume of agreements to 300 million cubic meters.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde signed an agreement on financial support for Ukraine’s energy system worth USD 70 million. The funds will be used to purchase energy storage systems for Ukrhydroenergo.
The Government of Ukraine and the International Energy Agency (IEA) signed a Joint Work Program for 2025–2026. The document provides for the IEA to support Ukraine in achieving the goals of strengthening energy security, ensuring post–war recovery and reconstruction, while investing in the transition to green energy. In particular, it provides for cooperation in implementing the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2050 and the Energy and Climate Plan until 2030, as well as updating national plans and commitments under the Paris Agreement.