Over the 10 months of operation of the trading platforms for the sale of Guarantees of Origin (certificates confirming the production of electricity from renewable sources), 1244 auctions were held, with 1764 items on offer. However, only 18 auctions were successful, with 21 items sold. This is according to the data analysed by DiXi Group experts.
Out of the declared 40.0 TWh, only 143.4 GWh were sold – just 0.4% of the total volume. The total value of sold lots was UAH 1.8 million.
For comparison, on Poland TGE exchange, 2.4 TWh of Guarantees of Origin were sold in May 2025 alone – nearly 17 times more than in Ukraine over ten months. The Slovakia May auction by OKTE resulted in the sale of 74.5 GWh, nearly half of Ukraine’s total volume to date.
Key sellers by declared volume:
- Guaranteed Buyer SE – 47.5%;
- Ukrhydroenergo PrJSC – 46.6%;
- other 15 companies – 5.9%.
In terms of actual sales volume, Ukrhydroenergo PrJSC leads with 74.9%, followed by Guaranteed Buyer SE (24.9%) and Zakarpattiaenergozbut LLC (0.2%).
Buyers of Guarantees of Origin have already included industrial and agricultural consumers such as Knauf Gips Kyiv, Vinnytsia Poultry Farm (MHP), Zaporizhzhia Abrasive Plant, and electricity suppliers.
The average sale price was UAH 12.8 per MWh (excluding VAT), indicating weak demand.
The growing supply combined with stagnant demand has widened the gap – now by a factor of 100. Key reasons include:
- lack of a mutual recognition agreement with the EU, limiting export opportunities;
- insufficient domestic demand due to the absence of financial or tax incentives;
- price sensitivity among businesses, as sustainability is not yet a decisive factor for end consumers;
- in-house renewable generation, with some companies covering their own “green” energy needs.
A new consolidated dataset covering the results of auctions for the purchase and sale of Guarantees of Electricity Origin generated from renewable energy sources is now available on the Energy Map portal. From now on, information from both the Market Operator and the Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEEX) trading platforms is accessible in a single table in both Ukrainian and English.
The dataset includes detailed information on each auction, including its type, status, initiator, energy type, number of participants and winners, volumes of declared and sold guarantees, as well as starting and actual prices.
The data are updated daily, provided auctions take place, and cover the period from October 2024 to the present. This enables analysis of market liquidity, price trends, demand levels, as well as comparison of platform efficiency and company activity.
What are Guarantees of Origin and why do they matter?
Guarantees of Origin are electronic certificates confirming that electricity has been generated from renewable energy sources (wind, solar, hydro, biomass, or biogas). One Guarantee of Origin equals 1 MWh of electricity delivered to the grid.
These certificates allow:
- businesses to verify the sustainability of their energy use and comply with ESG standards;
- producers to earn additional revenue by monetizing the environmental attribute of their electricity;
- governments to attract investment in renewable energy and progress toward climate goals.
In Ukraine, the issuance of certificates is carried out by the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC), based on data from the transmission system operator NPC Ukrenergo PrJSC. The official Registry became operational in August 2024, with the first certificates issued in October. Trading takes place on the Market Operator and UEEX platforms.
What could boost the market?
A mutual recognition agreement on Guarantees of Origin with the EU would be a major boost for the Ukrainian market by enabling exports. In May 2024, NEURC joined the Association of Issuing Bodies. In April 2025, the Regulator approved a draft law introducing the principle of reciprocity, granting NEURC the right to update the registry’s domain protocol and clarifying rules for disclosing the energy mix.
Domestic incentives could also drive demand – for example: tax benefits for consumers using a high share of renewable energy or mandatory renewable share quotas for suppliers (e.g., 9.8% in 2026, 10.8% in 2027, 11.9% in 2028). Suppliers would be able to meet the requirement either through direct contracts with RES producers or by purchasing the required amount of Guarantees of Origin. This scheme would both stimulate demand for Guarantees and give companies flexibility in how they comply.
The preparation of this material was made possible thanks to the support of the American people, provided through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) within the framework of the project “Energy Sector Transparency”, implemented by the DiXi Group NGO. The information presented in this material is the sole responsibility of the DiXi Group NGO and under no circumstances can be considered as reflecting the position of USAID or the US Government.
